Publikationen

There are sizable Muslim communities in many of the Balkan countries. As a whole, the region is characterised by the moderate nature of the Balkan Islam and tolerant relations among religions. In the last years, however, wars and political confrontation have drawn new dividing lines within local societies on ethnic and religious basis. The actions of the “Islamic State” and the terrorist acts in Europe placed additional strain on the local Islamic communities. Available evidence confirms the fact that a sizable number of Islamic fighters in the Middle East originated from South-Eastern Europe.

The study measures the real effect of labour emigration on the Bulgarian economy through a research based on an original

econometric model, which helps assessing the effectiveness of measures to change this trend. When deciding what policies

to use, we will be able to assess the cost of the decisions and what extent of action the state can afford. The publication also includes a sociological research that defines the profile and motivational attitudes of potential economic emigrants. The results of that research provide an opportunity for policies to be developed for the prevention of labour emigration. In any case, such an approach would be more efficient and quicker to put into practice than a reversal of the flow of labour migration.

Although the demographic situation in Bulgaria has been a serious crisis for nearly 30 years, it has only been the subject of public debate in the last few years. However, the focus and the measures taken are not related to the most significant problems and this leads to a lack of results. Among the important objectives of the present study is to make a comprehensive demographic forecast related to populated areas for Bulgaria up to 2030 of the main demographic indicators, which will outline the picture in the near future, and on this basis propose concrete measures and policies to improve the demographic situation in the country. Also to examine and analyse successful demographic measures and policies in Europe and to look for ways to adapt and apply them in Bulgaria.

Political scandals in the ruling coalition lead to a gradual and constant erosion of electoral support for GERB and the United Patriots. Protests in the last few months have increased public dissatisfaction with the government, and it is obvious from all this that this trend will also continue in the coming months. Confidence in political institutions continues to be at a critically low level, which increases the possibility of substantial shifting in electoral layers as a new factor emerges on the political arena.

The start of the new political season saw ministerial resignations, indicating that a hot political autumn is expected. Events in recent months have shown growing instability in governance, to which ministerial resignations are hardly likely to be the answer. The crisis with the Commercial Register, the bankruptcy of the insurance company „Olympic“, and poor-quality road construction are the result of complex problems, which will continue to generate such crises in the future. An accumulation of such scandals can lead to a gradual erosion in the support of the government.

The Presidency of Bulgaria of the EU Council can be judged as a successful political, logistical and communication plan. The theme of the “Western Balkans”, which had long been absent from the highest European forums, was back on the agenda again. Despite the difficulties and challenges faced by countries in the region, the prospects for integration open new horizons related to solving a long-standing controversy. The solution to the dispute over the name of Macedonia that Skopje and Athens reached shows that dialogue is possible in the name of a common European future.

The political situation in the first months of 2018 was determined to a great extent by the political tension created around the ratification of the Istanbul Convention and the deal with CEZ. These two events moved the focus of public attention away from the start of the rotational Presidency of Bulgaria of the Council of the EU. Despite the political controversies, the Presidency has been running successfully so far. The government has focused its efforts on two main priorities - integration of the Western Balkans into the EU and bringing the relations between the EU and Turkey back to normal.