Publikationen

The issue of whether to provide military assistance to Ukraine in the conflict with Russia has become a dividing line in Bulgarian politics. The social and economic policy of the Bulgarian government has been compromised as a result of the war and the crisis and requires new solutions. Trust in institutions and parties is diminishing without a clear alternative.

Bulgaria is entering a period of political turbulence. For the first time in the democratic history of the country, the elections for President and the National Assembly will be held on the same day. President Radev is favourite to win a second term. He continues to be the politician with the highest approval in the country. The next parliament is also expected to be highly fragmented, which will make negotiations for a stable parliamentary majority difficult.

Bulgaria entered an unprecedented political crisis following the antisystemic, antiparliamentary and destructive behaviour of There Is Such a People (Ima Takuv Narod - ITN). Political polarisation in the country has built a wall between the main political parties, which restricts opportunities for dialogue and finding a solution to form a Parliamentary majority. Third Parliamentary elections in slightly over six months push the state to a stalemate and to deepening the political crisis.

The bilingual (Bulgarian and English) collection is the result of more than a year of cooperation of the LevFem team, the Transnational Social Strike Platform, the international feminist network EAST - Essential Autonomous Struggles Transnational and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Bulgaria. The publication reflects the social and labor struggles, strikes and protests of women, migrants, key workers and LGBTI+ people from Eastern Europe (but also beyond) in the context of the Covid-19 crisis.

Bulgaria, like most European countries, is also a ground for the development of far-right movements and organisations. Widespread stereotypes in today’s Bulgarian society regarding “others”, Turks, Roma, Jews, refugees and LGBT people are negative. However, there is also a different level of tolerance for such differences, with the Roma being the most hated ethnic group. Four main dimensions of value perceptions, which are usually considered to be the basis for far right

attitudes - ethnocentrism, racism, xenophobia and islamophobia and conspiracy belief - are the subject of an analysis prepared by Prof. Dr. Antony Todorov, based on an empirical sociological survey conducted in autumn 2020 by the agency AFIS. The data analysis was performed by Chavdar Naidenov and Stefan Georgiev.

Industrial relations and social dialogue are an important element of any modern society. This publication aims to analyze their situation in Bulgaria in 2020, taking into account two important circumstances - the pandemic of COVID-19 and the census of members of trade unions and employers’ organizations. COVID-19 has led to the loss of many jobs and a change in the way many employees work. The census is carried out once every four years and is used to determine the nationally representative organizations of workers and employers.

The early parliamentary elections held on July 11th were marked by a record low turnout. For the first time since 2009, GERB are not the first political force. After a poor performance, BSP remains the third force.

The caretaker government has set about its work actively. The main challenge facing the caretaker government is the implementation of fair elections. Electoral polls show that Slavi Trifonov’s party is gaining ground on GERB and there is a definite possibility that for the first time since 2009 the party led by Boyko Borisov will lose the parliamentary elections.

After the decision of “There is such a people” to return the mandate to form a government, there will probably be new elections. The risks for a possible caretaker government appointed by the president will be high in view of the economic crisis and problems regarding the budget.The frustration of thousands of Bulgarians who supported the protests last year will intensify.

GERB won the elections, but it could be a Pyrrhic victory and the party will probably remain in opposition. The surprise of the elections was “There is such a people”, which achieved second place. The election results show that citizens want significant change.

The holding of elections in the circumstances of an epidemic is a major challenge facing the country. At this juncture, GERB, according to sociologists, is the leading political force, but the government has exceptionally low levels of confidence, and this may bring about surprises. With a greatly fragmented parliament, forming a ruling coalition will entail the agreement of at least three parties.

The vision of this project is to promote discussion and cooperation of the Bulgarian Greens with human/gender/migrants rights and social justice movements, in view of launching a new progressive, humanistic, democratic and ultimately green ‘wave’ in Bulgarian politics. Such a wave should contrast and contradict the ongoing right-wing nationalist trend. This publication was intended as a discussion paper for enhancing supportive interaction between Greens on the one hand, and human rights’ and social justice movements on the other.

Analysis of the Annual Grantee Meeting of the Bulgarian Fund for Women. 2020 is a serious contender for a leading apocalyptic scenario, not only in the context of the global pandemic of COVID-19, but also in terms of the eternal theme of equality between men and women. The year started with a report by the World Economic Forum predicting that in just 99.5 years, women will be equal to men, although in 2020 they will lead countries such as Finland, Germany and New Zealand and occupy leading positions in the European Central Bank and the World Bank. And two months later the EU, marking March 8, announced that women in the Union are confronted by “... challenges, inequalities and threats in their daily lives: abuse and harassment, lower pay, fewer jobs and opportunities for professional…

Bulgaria has entered a difficult phase of the pandemic. The situation in the country in the winter will be complicated by the concurrence of three crises - health, economic and political. The political elite as a whole show more an opportunistic pre-election state of mind than a state approach and unity in seeking solutions to the crisis.

There are ever-increasing indications that in the forthcoming elections, all the major parties will base their campaigns on anti-GERB rhetoric. The organisers of the protests from the “Poisonous Trio”, the party of Slavi Trifonov and “Stand up. BG” united in order to form a common network of observers, which would be a guarantor for fair elections in the country. The conflicts in BSP are not letting up and this may lead to a negative impact on the party in the forthcoming elections.

The political crisis in the country is becoming deeper. The protests and the situation in the country have led to a reaction on the part of European institutions. Ninova’s victory in the internal party elections for leader of BSP will consolidate her position on the eve of the parliamentary elections.

Bulgaria has entered a period of political crisis and the protests, which are in their second month, seem set to intensify at the beginning of September. The move with the project for a new constitution is an attempt to gain time because Prime Minister Borisov will not get the 160 votes required in the National Assembly to take the step of convening a Grand National Assembly. Opinion polls indicate a fragmented parliament for the next election, with declining support for GERB.

The scandals involving Prime Minister Borisov have been causing further damage to the country’s reputation. Recent events have shown that a number of fundamental EU values such as the rule of law, freedom of speech and media, and the separation of powers have been severely damaged in Bulgaria, and the silence of the EU is not well received by democratic spheres in the country. Political upheaval is on the cards in the coming months, because the expectation is that revelations about the government will continue.

The end of the state of emergency has led to a normalisation of political and public life in the country. Bulgaria has serious

problems not only with the rule of law, but also with the freedom of the media, and it would not come as a surprise if a more acute reaction should follow from Brussels to Sofia in the medium term. The party system is facing new restructuring in the context of the upcoming parliamentary elections at the beginning of next year.

The crisis with the coronavirus has radically changed the political debate in the country. In May confrontation between BSP and the ruling parties is expected to intensify as the economic consequences of the crisis become more visible. At this stage, confidence in the government and Prime Minister Borisov is high, but the economic ramifications that will follow are likely to have a negative impact on the credibility of the government over the medium and long term.

The Bulgarian government has taken timely measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus epidemic at this stage. As a whole, the political elite is acting responsibly and in a consolidated manner, although there are also some instances of unnecessary exacerbation of tensions. The major challenges in the country, just like everywhere in the world, are not only related to the crisis triggered by the pandemic, but are yet to come during the inevitable recession that will follow.

The exacerbation of the political situation in the country in the first months of this year is due to the shift of political and economic strata in the country, with the new Chief Prosecutor Ivan Geshev being the main player in this process. The escalation of tensions between the president and the government shows that it will be very difficult to find points of agreement for dialogue between them. Tensions in BSP are mounting with regard to the upcoming internal elections, which will decide who

will be the party leader.

The EU Council’s report and European Commission’s Country Report Bulgaria do not shed light on other grave issues – endemic working poor, repression of unions, non-observance of the law, as well as widespread violations of human rights. The 2018 CCC country profile shows that the latter are widespread in the garment sector which has 130.000 employees. As a direct impact of this social crises in Bulgaria, family members of tailors and many other citizens emigrate in search of means for survival – and all too often end up doing other precarious jobs in Western Europe.

The series presents shifts and dynamics within Bulgarian political parties and the party system as a whole, thereby shedding light on the development of Bulgarian democracy as a whole and the challenges in the process of its consolidation.

The stabilisation of the eurozone is one of the big challenges Europe is presently facing. While in some states of the EU the euro is still considered to be a critical integrative factor for the European Union, in others it is seen as an unfinished project, whose internal trade and financial imbalances create international redistributions and political strains, which are hard or impossible to resolve within the realm of national policies. While different models for reforming the currency union are being broadly discussed, the fact that another six countries are supposed to enter this Union is hardly mentioned in the debate.

The victory of GERB in the elections enables the party to complete its governing mandate. BSP has made a breakthrough in some regional cities of the country, but it cannot yet be seen as an alternative for a ruling party. Nationalist formations achieved lower results after the division.

The upcoming campaign for the local elections will be extremely intense, and full of compromising statements and smutty PR.

After winning the European elections, GERB is embarking upon the election campaign with confidence.

The divisions in BSP after the European elections seem to have temporarily died down and the party is emerging relatively consolidated for the local votes.

The European elections confirmed the political status quo and showed that there is no alternative in which voters are wont to place their trust. The campaign of compromising others led to an ebbing of voters and has confirmed the tendency of lack of confidence in the political elite and political parties as a whole. Scandals related to apartments and guest houses once again raised the issue of corruption in power.

Bulgaria has de facto entered the election campaign with a noisy scandal around luxury apartments bought by people in power at low prices. This has led to a strong public response and has become the number one theme in the public domain. These events show that there will be an intensified election campaign with a focus on compromising situations and black PR, and European topics will probably fade into the background.

This report contains the main results and conclusions of a national sociological survey of Bulgarian youth, and is representative of young people aged 14 – 29. The research was organised, methodologically developed and funded by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. For the second time after 2011 – 2015, the Foundation set out the goal of determining the attitudes of young people in different southeast European countries. In 2018, the survey has the advantage of being conducted practically simultaneously in ten countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Slovenia, and Serbia) and with an almost identical questionnaire, now providing for maximum similarity and comparability of data both at regional and chronological levels.

There are sizable Muslim communities in many of the Balkan countries. As a whole, the region is characterised by the moderate nature of the Balkan Islam and tolerant relations among religions. In the last years, however, wars and political confrontation have drawn new dividing lines within local societies on ethnic and religious basis. The actions of the “Islamic State” and the terrorist acts in Europe placed additional strain on the local Islamic communities. Available evidence confirms the fact that a sizable number of Islamic fighters in the Middle East originated from South-Eastern Europe.

The study measures the real effect of labour emigration on the Bulgarian economy through a research based on an original

econometric model, which helps assessing the effectiveness of measures to change this trend. When deciding what policies

to use, we will be able to assess the cost of the decisions and what extent of action the state can afford. The publication also includes a sociological research that defines the profile and motivational attitudes of potential economic emigrants. The results of that research provide an opportunity for policies to be developed for the prevention of labour emigration. In any case, such an approach would be more efficient and quicker to put into practice than a reversal of the flow of labour migration.

Although the demographic situation in Bulgaria has been a serious crisis for nearly 30 years, it has only been the subject of public debate in the last few years. However, the focus and the measures taken are not related to the most significant problems and this leads to a lack of results. Among the important objectives of the present study is to make a comprehensive demographic forecast related to populated areas for Bulgaria up to 2030 of the main demographic indicators, which will outline the picture in the near future, and on this basis propose concrete measures and policies to improve the demographic situation in the country. Also to examine and analyse successful demographic measures and policies in Europe and to look for ways to adapt and apply them in Bulgaria.

Political scandals in the ruling coalition lead to a gradual and constant erosion of electoral support for GERB and the United Patriots. Protests in the last few months have increased public dissatisfaction with the government, and it is obvious from all this that this trend will also continue in the coming months. Confidence in political institutions continues to be at a critically low level, which increases the possibility of substantial shifting in electoral layers as a new factor emerges on the political arena.

The start of the new political season saw ministerial resignations, indicating that a hot political autumn is expected. Events in recent months have shown growing instability in governance, to which ministerial resignations are hardly likely to be the answer. The crisis with the Commercial Register, the bankruptcy of the insurance company „Olympic“, and poor-quality road construction are the result of complex problems, which will continue to generate such crises in the future. An accumulation of such scandals can lead to a gradual erosion in the support of the government.

The Presidency of Bulgaria of the EU Council can be judged as a successful political, logistical and communication plan. The theme of the “Western Balkans”, which had long been absent from the highest European forums, was back on the agenda again. Despite the difficulties and challenges faced by countries in the region, the prospects for integration open new horizons related to solving a long-standing controversy. The solution to the dispute over the name of Macedonia that Skopje and Athens reached shows that dialogue is possible in the name of a common European future.

The political situation in the first months of 2018 was determined to a great extent by the political tension created around the ratification of the Istanbul Convention and the deal with CEZ. These two events moved the focus of public attention away from the start of the rotational Presidency of Bulgaria of the Council of the EU. Despite the political controversies, the Presidency has been running successfully so far. The government has focused its efforts on two main priorities - integration of the Western Balkans into the EU and bringing the relations between the EU and Turkey back to normal.

The report summarises an international conference, which gathered over 40 European and national policy makers, international and national experts, youth representatives and activists and over 40 young participants across Europe, the Black Sea and Mediterranean regions. In theory, young people are supposed to have access to social protection, but in reality young refugees are often being denied of access to any social services and benefits. The recent migration crisis has also shown that European policies are inadequate in ensuring the rights of all young people in Europe. Youth organizations across Europe have turned out to be one of the main driving forces towards a better social inclusion and integration of refugees.

The payment for professional experience and labour service, more known as “seniority grade” has become subject to fierce attacks from Bulgarian employers’ organisations. While it the only guarantee that salaries will be augmented annually, albeit just a little, employers argue this system does not exist elsewhere in Europe. Although government does not support the employers’ organisations so far, under mounting pressure from lobbying, certain state officials have started to give in. We find that the Bulgarian model has many analogies in other EU countries and beyond. In fact, the majority of the analyzed country do have models of augmenting salaries and/or adjusting base salaries according to professional experience. Bulgaria´s model of seniority grade therefore neither stands isolated…

Far-right parties and parties with an inclination to extreme nationalism are gaining power in Europe rising xenophobia and racism. An analysis of the policies of the political parties and movements in Bulgaria regarding the identification of program initiatives against human rights, women‘s and minority rights and their active implementation in political and social life in our country is the first of its kind, not only in Bulgaria. The research involves different political parties, non-governmental organizations, academic circles and media representatives analyzing the role of these policies for violating human rights, creating xenophobia, racism and anti-feminism, and creating stereotypes about women, men and minority groups.

Varna Forum 2.0 Thinking Together, Conference Documenation

At the end of 2017 political tensions in the country intensified. The reasons for this are the increased confrontation between GERB and BSP, which led to a series of scandals, resignations and mutual accusations. All this could have a negative impact on the EU Council Presidency, starting on January 1st. Successful running of the Presidency is a major objective of the government and ruling majority.

Recent months will be remembered for the foreign political activity of the government. The good neighbourhood treaty signed with Macedonia stands out as a particularly big success. It had been postponed for years by the Macedonian side.

The new government, made up of GERB and United Patriots, seems stable at this stage. The participation in the cabinet of two co-chairs of the patriots is a guarantee for their close involvement in the country’s governance.

The political situation in the future will be determined by the election results. Bulgaria will soon have a new government that has been regularly chosen by parliament.